Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.107948 0.122072 0.137350 0.155105 0.175178 0.197170 0.223103
2025-12-28 0.088019 0.107010 0.129075 0.156614 0.190087 0.229484 0.279426
2026-01-04 0.071081 0.092303 0.118616 0.153665 0.199179 0.256366 0.333823
2026-01-11 0.059198 0.081755 0.111478 0.153553 0.211684 0.289342 0.401278
2026-01-18 0.050476 0.073863 0.106490 0.155402 0.227044 0.328440 0.483437
2026-01-25 0.041102 0.063497 0.096462 0.148611 0.229303 0.349885 0.544690
2026-02-01 0.033372 0.054253 0.086577 0.140372 0.228027 0.365896 0.600576
2026-02-08 0.027972 0.047718 0.079776 0.135746 0.231521 0.389647 0.672476
2026-02-15 0.023503 0.041961 0.073304 0.130565 0.233190 0.410588 0.743142
2026-02-22 0.020989 0.039131 0.071286 0.132630 0.247540 0.455077 0.862001
2026-03-01 0.017970 0.034903 0.066154 0.128259 0.249564 0.477933 0.945166
2026-03-08 0.015662 0.031630 0.062257 0.125546 0.254196 0.506185 1.043150
2026-03-15 0.013650 0.028675 0.058642 0.123063 0.259418 0.537454 1.154900
2026-03-22 0.012468 0.027213 0.057756 0.125986 0.276195 0.594677 1.330953
2026-03-29 0.011077 0.025083 0.055169 0.124909 0.284359 0.635400 1.479004
2026-04-05 0.010030 0.023537 0.053591 0.125796 0.297055 0.688113 1.663932
2026-04-12 0.009211 0.022374 0.052678 0.128059 0.313328 0.751632 1.886073
2026-04-19 0.008019 0.020130 0.048938 0.123013 0.311378 0.772370 2.008043
2026-04-26 0.006912 0.017911 0.044909 0.116590 0.304953 0.781274 2.101970
2026-05-03 0.006110 0.016329 0.042192 0.113035 0.305253 0.807076 2.245181
2026-05-10 0.005384 0.014827 0.039440 0.108930 0.303417 0.827103 2.376695
2026-05-17 0.005015 0.014222 0.038933 0.110807 0.318212 0.893980 2.652413
2026-05-24 0.004462 0.013016 0.036623 0.107274 0.317223 0.917356 2.806695